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December 8- Lately I've heard numerous members of the local real
estate community complain about not being busy while I have witnessed
the more experienced agents (myself included) being very busy.In this
broker's opinion they all better get ready because things are about
to take-off again. Why all of the optimism? Fabulous early snow
conditions have put Mammoth into full winter mode and this combined
with the state of tourism (staying close to home) should make this a
big, big winter for skier numbers and tourism at Mammoth.
I have always said that real estate sales in our market are a
byproduct of having people in town.The more people in town, the more
sales we have. Large numbers of Thanksgiving visitors have already
sparked the real estate activity that slowed somewhat after Sept.11.
So now combine great snow with the state of tourism and cheap
gasoline with the most incredible display of development Mammoth has
ever seen in North Village, continuing "baby boom" demographics now
accelerated by world events, low interest rates, and low available
inventory. All of these factors will converge in the couple weeks to
come.
The immediate surge in real estate sales will probably not
occur until about March, but there is a wild card. This is the second
year of cheap season passes. Mammoth Mountain Ski Area reported
all-time record revenue and profits last year, the first year of
cheap passes.They sold an additional 1,000 passes this year (27,000)
with 10,000 new pass holders. The bottom line is that cheap ski
passes are here to stay. Oddly enough, last year those passes drove
real estate sales here in Mammoth. Add the new difficulties of air
travel, and more and more people want a "pass and a condo".
Let's take a quick look at the inventory.In the condominium
market the standing inventory is deceptive. If we scrub out the new
and resale Intrawest properties (there's plenty of them), the new
Snowcreek Phase 5 units, and the fractional units, there is right
around 100 units listed for sale. The market under $220,000 for
buyers is dismal. There are some good one bedroom units available,
but nothing good of any size. There are some good buys left between
$220K and $300K, but not very many. That's where the next pressure
point is going to be. Between $300K and $400K there are numerous good
properties available. Over $400K is mostly Intrawest and Snowcreek.
In the single family home market, there are less than 50
homes on the market.Today's average price is $793,000 with a median
price of $589,000. Entry level is $284,000 with only a few quality
properties under $500K. The best buys are in the $500K to $600K
range, but only a handful available. There are some beautiful brand
new homes in the slightly over $1 million range. The single family
home lots are even more scarce, with only a few good ones under
$300K. But there are still quite a few good ones in the $300K to
$400K range and some fabulous ones beyond that. All in all, if we put
some pressure on any one of these market segments, there won't be
anything left.
Meanwhile, the key developments in and around Mammoth move
forward. Other than the obvious, I don't think there will be anything
new to report until after the first of the year. Everybody is waiting
for the final word on the airport.The end result may be very
surprising. Those that are waiting for that resolution before they
make their next acquisition of real estate in Mammoth may be paying a
lot more then than they would today. But we'll see. All that aside,
the skiing is just great and I'm really looking forward to my 21st
winter in Mammoth. Happy Holidays!!
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