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October 31- The events of the past two months have certainly made
this broker step back and make observations.There are many dynamics
influencing the local market-so let's take a look.
-Inventory and prices have remained stable, while a few new listings
have come to the market(there has certainly been no rush of
properties to the market,) an equal or greater number have gone to
escrow. Really motivated sellers are rare and smart buyers are
picking up those properties with significant price reductions or
those with excellent locations.
-Interest rates are incredible. Fixed rate loans are in the mid 6%
range with jumbo loans available in 5 and 7 year fixed/variable
programs actually going below the 6% range. Rates move up and down
but great rates and programs are all over the place-and it's hard to
think they could go any lower.
-There has been very little cancellation of escrows since Sept. 11,
in fact that were scheduled to close have closed and those that have
fallen apart were likely to do so anyway.
-Construction in the Village has simply gone crazy.The second seven
story tower crane is being assembled while the first one has been
moving tons of material around the site. Initial construction of the
lower gondola terminal is well under way. A constant flow of cement
trucks moves onto the site as the first parking structure/foundation
begins to take shape. Several pads for gondola towers have been
poured between the Village and Canyon Lodge.The re-alignment of
Canyon Blvd. is near completion.
-International events appear to be accelerating the demographic shift
to rural areas. Even the Wall St. Journal picked up on this in an
article that appeared on Oct. 19 titled "In Search of Safe Havens".
We have witnessed this trend first hand in our own market and in our
own office front door.
-Like many world-class mountain resort communities, Mammoth's single
family residential properties continue to rise in quality and
value.The volume of high-end residential construction is almost
unbelievable. Conversely, as many boomers come to Mammoth looking for
their mountain resort retreat, many will find themselves priced out
of the home market. Many will have to turn to the townhome
market-quality properties with the livability features. That is
presently the softest segment of the market-condominiums in the
$280,000 to $380,000 price range-with almost one-third of the
inventory in that range. Most of the seller's just don't seem highly
motivated to sell in that price range.
-Advanced winter bookings for condominium and motels/hotels are more
than 10% ahead of last year at this time. Tourism sources all agree
that this winter's travelers are planning on staying closer to home
and will prefer to travel by car.
Visitation to Mammoth should be strong this winter. Those visitors
will be shocked by what is happening in the Village. Skiers will find
a completely renovated Mid Chalet on the Mountain. Meanwhile, buyers
will be picking up the good buys in the market-picking up the
properties of the few particularly really motivated sellers. Smart
buyers will also be picking up the properties in superb locations
(especially around the Village but not in the Village) and taking
advantage of the low interest rates and what should be great winter
cash flows.
The only market oddity is the continued arrogance of the Intrawest
sales program. They still act as if they are in demand-and they
aren't. And the ranks of their dissatisfied customers grows larger.
They continue to lose buyer confidence. They clearly need to
recapture buyer confidence in this marketplace. Maybe that is why
they are working so hard to get the Village out of the ground.
The best news is that there is a foot plus of new, heavy snow around
the Main Lodge. Mammoth will open on fresh snow with snow making
right behind! Time to ski!
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