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January 24- People who know me have often heard me say that to be a shrewd real estate investor in Mammoth Lakes it is important to work with an agent who has excellent knowledge of the market but who is also "paying attention" to the market. The Mammoth market has had many "surge " points in the past few years and to know that one is occurring is very important. Tens of thousands of dollars can be left on the table if a property is listed too low and conversely sometimes a full price offer is a bargain. It is hard enough for experienced agents who are actively working to keep abreast when a market surges let alone for agents as I say "spend more money on their websites then they do their apartment rent."
I have hesitated to write this report because I was anticipating a market surge and wanted to report on it as it began. Regular readers of this report know I have anticipated a surge in activity once the winter visitors got the chance to see the Village in action—the gondola, the transit hub and shuttle system, the restaurants and shops–basically, the beginning of the whole Village environment destined in Mammoth. We saw a small surge following the Thanksgiving weekend. But real estate activity always slows during the Christmas/New Years period and the "post holiday decompression" period. The past few winters, sales activity has typically picked up as we head into spring.
Not this year. The past week has seen an increasing surge in sales through the whole market, but especially in the condominium segment. New listings are getting pounced on. Multiple offers are normal. Local brokers are hesitant to put new properties into the Multiple Listing Service because they want to keep them for themselves or their own brokerage. Having knowledge of available but unadvertised properties and unreported sales activity becomes critical. What is going to happen come spring?
Besides the excitement over the Village, why is the market surging again? Many factors remain the same–low interest rates, plentiful and available capital, continued awareness of Mammoth's "new" direction, demographics, the great weather, and excellent ski conditions. Investors really are beginning to get the real sense of the supply and demand factors involved. Also, in the past, when Intrawest was in a "launch" mode, that is pushing a new project with intense marketing program, market activity in the resale market has increased. While there is not a major launch ongoing, Intrawest is preparing to complete the reservation process on the second phase of Juniper Crest at Eagle base and there has been a push to sell the "8050" project, a club/timeshare project slated next to the gondola base in the Village.
Meanwhile, properties are moving in and out of the inventory quickly. More and more buyers are willing to "step to the plate" and make substantial offers. Many sellers are "taking their profits" and moving on. Some seller's are taking the opportunity to move up or move down. Entry level condos are now well into the $300,000 range with some miscellaneous one bedroom units under that figure. There is almost a bizarre absence of available condos in the $700,000 to $1,200,000 range, although I know of a couple coming on this week.
Entry level homes are over $500,000 (there are a couple under $600,000) and a decent, livable home in Mammoth is going to start in the $800,000 range. And residential lots, there are some good buys still in the $400,000 range. Income properties have gone absurd. Recent sales have pushed the rent multiplier numbers to Mars and in the last week some of the owners of some of the real "dog" income properties have listed their properties at prices reflecting those numbers. Buyer beware.
Of market note, in the past months we could show potential buyers some very nice homes in Crowley Lake in the $500,000 to $700,000 range. Not now, they're all gone and buyers who hesitated are scrambling to find anything available. General contractors building on "spec" are expected to start building homes this summer in the brand new LakeRidge Bluffs subdivisions in Crowley but prices are going to be up significantly due to higher lot prices, demand for larger homes and market direction.
Other insights; The Village is going to be a very busy place in many respects-surrounding traffic, visitor activity to the gondola, shops, restaurants and bars, etc.. People who buy there should not expect "peace and quiet" when staying in their property. But it's a lot of fun!. While we are waiting for the new environmental work to be completed on the airport (expect 18 months), the opposing forces seem to be talking on a greater level than ever before. New administration in the Town offices is helping. Speaking of the airport, it appears more and more that it will ultimately be a two airport system, Mammoth and Bishop. And there have been an incredible number of jets at the Mammoth Airport the last 45 days.
Also, the Old Mammoth Road renovation is working and not working. While the separate sidewalks make the street very pedestrian friendly, the street is much narrower and the lines painted on the asphalt last fall are long gone. The project is due for completion this summer and inevitably there will be some adjustments.
Skiers and non-skiers alike are really enjoying the gondola ride from the Village to Canyon Lodge. The view is spectacular and riding over all of the homes is fun. Combined with the new adjacent transit hub, getting around Mammoth is getting easier, safer, and definitely more fun. There are some bugs to work out, but it has only been operating for a little over a month.
Rumors are that the Town's building department is anticipating issuing "by far" the largest amount of building permits they ever have for this summer. Let's just see what gets started and what doesn't. Between this and the signs of another big year in sales, its is again time to "hold on" here in Mammoth
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