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As appeared in the Mammoth Real Estate Times, Winter 2002 edition.
Q: In your last column you talked alot about supply and
demand and I can understand why more and more people want to come to
Mammoth and why they want to own property here, but I don't know why
you keep emphasizing the lack of supply and the lack of inventory, it
just seems like they can build more property?
A: I've touched on this many times in the past and yet I hear
this question more and more, so maybe I really need to drive home the
point. n the wall in my personal office I have the big Forest Service
maps of this area that delineate in different colors the Wilderness
and Scenic Areas, the National Forests, the Bureau of Land Management
Lands, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Lands, etc..
Besides being incredible maps, there is a very profound point-the
privately owned land is in white-and there very little white on the
map.
Back in 1999, Mountain Sports and Living Magazine did a major
statistical analysis of mountain towns like Mammoth and presented
"The Best 10 Mountain Towns". Mammoth came in fifth place. The one
statistic that Mammoth placed first in was Percentage of surrounding
county that is public land. The percentage is 94%. Aspen and Vail
placed second and third with percentages in the low 80's. So this
aspect of Mammoth is pretty unique.
So will any of this land be privatized? The trend is actually
in the other direction. Although there are some trade negotiations
going on (like for the back nine of the Snowcreek golf course), the
net effect is heading the other way because of those trades and
acquisitions by entities like the Trust for Public Lands. More
importantly, groups like the Sierra Club and even more radical
"eco-terrorists" groups seem bound and determined (and backed by lots
of dollars and legal expertise) to block any expansions. That is why
the existing land uses, entitlements, developments agreements, etc.,
are so valuable and becoming more valuable every day.
The end result is higher values as demand increases. But it
does mean something else. It means we live in the middle of a vast
public playground. Unlike many mountain areas, you don't see many No
Trespassing signs. I often refer to Mammoth as "Small town, BIG
playground." In 1994, Sunset magazine ran a feature article on the
Eastern Sierra titled "Our Accidental National Park". There is a
great quote in the beginning of that article from retired fisheries
biologist Phil Pister.
Pister said, "This view (the Sierra ) has scarcely changed
since John Muir tramped the area more than a hundred years ago.We're
less than 5 hours' drive from one of the largest urban areas in the
world, yet you don't find any sprawling subdivisions or tacky highway
strip malls, and only a handful of vacation home developments...In
the long run, it may be that the only thing worse than Los Angeles
taking our water would be if it had not been taken at all. It is
because of the Department of Water and Power that the Eastern Sierra
today is essentially a de facto national park."
So what does this all mean for real estate? One thing is that
if you are looking for 5 acres with a stream running through it (let
alone for a bargain price), forget it. Mammoth will infill and
redevelop tremendously in the years to come. Unimproved residential
lots will become more scarce and more valuable. Try to find a good
lot in Mammoth under $300,000 today. New condominiums built on this
valuable land are typically smaller in size and pricey. That makes
some of the older condos look like good buys at this point. All in
all, as long as demand continues, so should values.
One of the most important challenges of the future for
Mammoth is assuring that we have adequate housing for the working man
as this value trend continues. The Town government and others have
the plans and process in place to assure this happens. And more
importantly, the land is there to do it. The execution is inevitable,
it will just take some time.
I don't think I can drive home the point any more. Oddly,
some people still won't get it. At this point of our lives I feel
I'll defer to the first sentence of The National Association of
Realtors® Code of Ethics, "Under all is the land. Upon its wise
utilization and widely allocated ownership depend the survival and
growth of free institutions and our civilization."
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