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Q: We have been regular readers of your column for several years now and know that in the past you have talked about how Mammoth falls into the "exurbia" part of the future demographic shifts in the United States. So are we seeing that influence on the Mammoth market yet or do you think we will, or maybe not?
A: With all of the other very interesting things going on in Mammoth these days, this almost seems like a sidebar issue but it is certainly one worth revisiting at this point in time. First of all, let's define exurbia. The dictionary in Microsoft Word defines it as "the prosperous residential area beyond the suburbs of a city". The hardbound dictionary I recently bought for my home defines it as "a region lying beyond the suburbs especially one inhabited principally by wealthy people". The operative words prosperous and wealthy are worthy of note. Mammoth certainly appears prosperous, and we know more and more wealthy people are buying or building homes here.
Harry S. Dent is the economist and author who's Great Boom and Roaring 2000s books and writings brought all of this demographic theory to the forefront. Dent's theory is that the combination of a "new economy" based primarily on technology, and continued problems in both the cities and suburbs–problems like traffic, crime, pollution, terror threats, etc.–would enable a growing shift towards "exurban living". This exurban living occurs in quality small towns including resorts and the outer rings (the "beyond") of suburban areas.
What it all comes down to is that people who are not location-dependent for their livelihoods are now choosing to live in places like Mammoth to experience a greater quality of life. Kind of like the trust fund ski bums we all use to know except these "exurbians" really do have some level of real responsibility, hence the need to answer their cell phone or log-on once in a while.
But what Dent really sees as the driver of growth in exurbia is this combination of the new economy and urban flight mixed with the timing of baby boomers heading into semi-retirement or retirement. According to Dent we are on the launch pad of that era right now. In fact, in the Oct. 29 issue of The Sheet (yes, I do read the Sheet) there was a little Mountain Town News item that is very telling. From Jackson Hole, Wyoming the headline read, "Tourism isn't driving the economy any more". According to a consultant, "second homes, in-migrating retirees, and those who live there while depending upon income from elsewhere have made Jackson Hole something else again."
The point of the article was the impact of the exurbia factor relative to tourism, but the message here is that exurbia has already had a profound effect on a town similar to Mammoth. But three big differences I see between Jackson and Mammoth are that Mammoth has a climate much more conducive to older age, Mammoth has millions of affluent households within a half-day's drive, and Mammoth is closer to the kids and grandkids of these boomers. One other thing; is Mammoth becoming an exurb of two of the fastest growing areas in the country, the Reno/Carson Valley and Las Vegas?
From my experience there are plenty of boomers who have set themselves up for the exurbian move to Mammoth by acquiring properties (including residential lots to build on) with the intent of using them more and more in the future or making the break entirely. But some have a hard time walking away from work or a business, and some just want to put a little more into their nest egg. And typical southern Californians might just have a couple additional years of youth in them before they make the move. And many are looking at having two or three exurbia locations to call home–Mammoth, the Desert, Hawaii, Costa Rica, and on and on
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